Purpose: This study aimed to propose an effective quantitative pathological scoring system and to establish nomogram to assess the stage of cirrhosis and predict postoperative survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with cirrhosis patients after hepatectomy.
Methods: The scoring system was based on a retrospective study on 163 patients who underwent partial hepatectomy for HCC with cirrhosis. The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 163 HCC with cirrhosis patients who underwent hepatectomy in our hospital from 2010 to 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. A scoring system was established based on the total value of independent predictive factors of cirrhosis. The results were validated using 97 patients operated on from 2011 to 2015 at the same institution. Nomogram was then formulated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to analyze.
Results: The scoring system was ultimately composed of 4 independent predictive factors and was divided into 3 levels. The new cirrhosis system score strongly correlated with Child–Pugh score (r =0.8058, P< 0.0001) 3 months after surgery; higher cirrhosis system scores predicted poorer liver function and stronger liver damage 3 months after surgery. Then, a four-factor nomogram for survival prediction was established. The concordance indices were 0.79 for the survival-prediction nomogram. The calibration curves showed good agreement between predictions by the nomogram and actual survival outcomes.
Conclusion: This new scoring system of cirrhosis can help us predict the liver function and liver injury 3 months after surgery, and the nomogram enabled accurate predictions of risk of overall survival in patients of HCC with cirrhosis after hepatectomy.
Keywords: cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC, pathology, scoring system, nomogram