Background: Nearly 30% of stage IA non-small-cell lung cancer patients eventually die of recurrence or metastasis. This study aimed to predict stage IA lung adenocarcinoma (LADC) patients who underwent radical resection with a high risk of recurrence or metastasis.
Methods: Information on clinicopathological, genetic and therapeutic features and recurrence status was collected in this retrospective and two-center study. A nomogram based on multivariate analysis was established to predict disease-free survival. Further stratification was performed to identify populations with a high risk of relapse.
Results: A total of 1584 patients with pathological stage IA LADC who underwent radical surgery between 2011 and 2015 were enrolled from two medical institutions in this study. The nomogram including tumor differentiation and EGFR  mutation had a higher C-index of 0.880 (95% CI 0.833– 0.926) compared to 0.598 (95% CI 0.486– 0.711) for the AJCC 8th TNM staging system. Furthermore, the C-index for the validation cohort was 0.798 (95% CI 0.738– 0.857). In addition, the 3-year cumulative nonrecurrence rate in the high-risk group stratified by this model was 21.8% compared to 98.1% in the low-risk group.
Conclusion: This study proposed a new nomogram including tumor differentiation and EGFR  mutation to predict recurrence or metastatic probability in stage IA LADC patients who underwent radical surgery. This nomogram could identify patients in the high-risk group and help guide adjuvant treatment in the future.
Keywords: nomogram, stage IA, lung adenocarcinoma, disease-free survival