Background: We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic value of the albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR)–neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) score, comprising preoperative AFR and NLR, in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients after radical resection.
Patients and Methods: Overall, 215 patients were included. The optimal cutoff value was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Based on a low AFR (< 12.06) and high NLR (≥ 1.78), the AFR–NLR score was classified as 2 (both hematological abnormalities present), 1 (one abnormality present), or 0 (both abnormalities absent). Kaplan–Meier curves, Cox regression, and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the prognostic value of the score.
Results: The prognostic value of the AFR–NLR score was better than that of AFR or NLR alone (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a high AFR–NLR score was an independent predictor of poor prognosis for overall survival (P < 0.001). Additionally, in the nomogram including the AFR–NLR score, the net reclassification improvement index increased by 35.5% (P < 0.001), and the integrated discrimination improvement index increased by 9.0% (P < 0.001). The predictive accuracy of the established nomogram model was proved using Harrell’s concordance index (0.811, 95% confidence interval: 0.765– 0.856) and calibration curve. Notably, the decision analysis curve showed that the nomogram had a higher net benefit within most of the threshold probability range, indicating better clinical applicability.
Conclusion: The AFR–NLR score is a useful predictor of the prognosis of ESCC patients after radical resection, and the nomogram established on the basis of this score has a good prognostic value.
Keywords: esophageal squamous cell cancer, AFR–NLR score, prognosis, nomogram