Hongli Xu,1,* Xiaoyan Qin,2,* Guoli Zhao,3 Zeguo Feng,3 Shaohua You3 

1Medical Big Data Research Center, Medical Innovation Research Department of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Clinical Laboratory, Shijingshan teaching hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing shijingshan Hospital, Beijing, 100049, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Pain Medicine, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People’s Republic of China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Shaohua You, Department of Pain Medicine, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People’s Republic of China, Email youshaohua301@126.com

Background: Tension-type headache (TTH) is a prevalent primary headache disorder significantly impacting quality of life and healthcare resource utilization, with females typically bearing a higher disease burden. However, comprehensive analyses and predictive studies on the global TTH burden stratified by gender are currently lacking.
Aim: This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to analyze the global burden of tension - type headache by sex from 1990 to 2021 and conducted a 15 - year projection (up to 2036).
Methods: We conducted a systematic review of GBD 2021 data, employing Joinpoint regression analysis and decomposition analysis to assess TTH incidence, prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model for a 15-year predictive analysis of TTH burden trends.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, global female TTH cases rose from 669.54 million (95% UI: 586.2– 751.8 million) to 1.04 billion (95% UI: 923.0– 1.1 billion), with incidence increasing from 242.9 million (95% UI: 218.8– 267.0 million) to 369.86 million (95% UI: 332.5– 407.2 million). Male cases grew from 616.82 million (95% UI: 537.2– 696.4 million) to 970 million (95% UI: 851.0– 1.0 billion). Decomposition analysis indicated population growth was the primary driver of the increase in female TTH prevalence. Projections suggest that by 2036, the incidence will reach 9,174.84 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 8,854.8– 9,494.9), prevalence will be 25,135.1 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 23,977.2– 26,283.0), YLD rate will be 62.76 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 58.8– 66.7), and DALY rate will be 60.97 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 56.7– 65.2).
Conclusion: This study highlights the significance of gender in TTH burden, particularly the heightened risk for females. Through temporal trend analysis and predictive modeling, we provide insights into future TTH disease trajectories, aiding global public health policy formulation and healthcare resource allocation.

Keywords: tension-type headache, gender differences, disease burden decomposition, joinpoint regression analysis, epidemiological trends, predictive modeling