Chin-Ling Tsai,1,2,* Baoyi Liu,1,2,* Yaping Liu,1,2 Zhuojun Xu,1,2 Zhuangling Lin,1,2 Ziye Chen,1,2 Yuan Ma,1,2 Yuan Liu,1,2 Zitong Chen,1,2 Lan Jiang,1,2 Zijian Qin,1,2 Kunbei Lai,1,2 Tao Li1,2 

1State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology Visual Science, Guangzhou, 510060, People’s Republic of China; 2Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Ocular Diseases, Guangzhou, 510060, People’s Republic of China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Tao Li, State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510060, People’s Republic of China, Email litao2@mail.sysu.edu.cn

Purpose: To analyze past trends and project future trajectories of vitreoretinal surgery in China.
Methods: A single-institution, retrospective analysis of vitreoretinal surgeries conducted at Zhongshan ophthalmic center (ZOC), Sun Yat-sen University, from 2005 to 2022, utilizing ZOC’s inpatient database. Patients hospitalized in the retinal surgery department were included. The number of surgeries was stratified by final diagnosis, and a time series forecasting model was employed to predict the number of patients undergoing vitreoretinal surgery up to and including the year 2032.
Results: The number of patients undergoing vitreoretinal surgery increased nearly fourfold from 2005 to 2022, reaching a total of 5600 vitreoretinal surgeries in 2022. The majority of indication was given for the treatment was rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). Among the diagnosis categories, macular diseases (MD) increased by 15.61%, and diabetic retinopathy (DR) by 11.99% during the study period. Vitreoretinal surgeries are projected to increased annually, with an estimated 9231 vitreoretinal surgeries by 2032.
Conclusion: The demand for vitreoretinal surgery in China has grown substantially over the last decade and is anticipated to rise further. Healthcare systems must adapt to accommodate the high demand.

Keywords: vitreoretinal surgery, trend, projection