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已发表论文
1990 年至 2021 年全球伯基特淋巴瘤的发病模式、时间趋势及潜在非传染性风险因素
Authors Jin SK, Lyu JT, Feng ZY, Zhang SQ, Lu BY, Yan QF, Li J, Du J, Huang ZF
Received 27 July 2025
Accepted for publication 6 December 2025
Published 8 January 2026 Volume 2026:16 556459
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/BLCTT.S556459
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Wilson Gonsalves
Shi-Kai Jin,1,* Jun-Ting Lyu,2,* Zi-Yu Feng,1 Shu-Qi Zhang,1 Bin-Yan Lu,1 Qin-Fu Yan,3 Jing Li,3 Jun Du,4 Zou-Fang Huang5
1Department of Clinical Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hematology, Zhuhai Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Zhuhai, 519000, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Clinical Medicine, School of the First Clinical Medicine, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, 341000, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Hematology, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200127, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, The People’s Hospital of Baoan, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518101, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Zou-Fang Huang, Department of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, The People’s Hospital of Baoan Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518101, People’s Republic of China, Email nfyyjsjj@126.com Jun Du, Department of Hematology, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China, Email dujun@renji.com
Background: The heterogeneity in the health burden and non-infectious risk factors of Burkitt lymphoma (BL) across sex, age, and geographic distribution remain inadequately understood.
Methods: Based on Global Burden of Disease study 2021, we estimate the health burden of BL from four metrics: incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years. Subgroups were stratified by age, sex, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify trends in the health burden. Predictions were performed using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Non-infectious risk factors were identified and analyzed utilizing summary exposure values (SEVs) to assess their impact on BL incidence and mortality.
Results: The estimated global incident number of BL was 19,073 (95% CI: 9651 to 32,509) in 2021, nearly threefold that of 1990. The health burden of BL was markedly higher in males than females, especially among individuals aged under 20 years. From 1990 to 2021, the most significant increasing trend in BL health burden was observed in Cabo Verde, while Georgia exhibited the most notable decline. From 2021 to 2040, the global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were projected to decline by 14.7% and 24.7%, respectively. Conversely, the health burden on individuals aged 20 to 54 years was anticipated to rise through 2040. In our study, low bone mineral density was found to be linked with elevated risk for males aged over 54 years, while childhood sexual abuse exhibited a paramount positive association with BL risk for females, regardless of age. Notably, tobacco use, particularly secondhand smoking, were inversely associated with BL risk across all age groups and sexes.
Conclusion: Burkitt lymphoma demonstrated unique distribution patterns in terms of age, sex, and region. Further investigations into the heterogeneity of the risk factors for BL are essential for the development of more effective health policies and clinical practices.
Keywords: Burkitt lymphoma, global burden of disease, health burden, trend, risk factor
1Department of Clinical Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hematology, Zhuhai Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Zhuhai, 519000, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Clinical Medicine, School of the First Clinical Medicine, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, 341000, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Hematology, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200127, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, The People’s Hospital of Baoan, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518101, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Zou-Fang Huang, Department of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, The People’s Hospital of Baoan Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518101, People’s Republic of China, Email nfyyjsjj@126.com Jun Du, Department of Hematology, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China, Email dujun@renji.com
Background: The heterogeneity in the health burden and non-infectious risk factors of Burkitt lymphoma (BL) across sex, age, and geographic distribution remain inadequately understood.
Methods: Based on Global Burden of Disease study 2021, we estimate the health burden of BL from four metrics: incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years. Subgroups were stratified by age, sex, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify trends in the health burden. Predictions were performed using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Non-infectious risk factors were identified and analyzed utilizing summary exposure values (SEVs) to assess their impact on BL incidence and mortality.
Results: The estimated global incident number of BL was 19,073 (95% CI: 9651 to 32,509) in 2021, nearly threefold that of 1990. The health burden of BL was markedly higher in males than females, especially among individuals aged under 20 years. From 1990 to 2021, the most significant increasing trend in BL health burden was observed in Cabo Verde, while Georgia exhibited the most notable decline. From 2021 to 2040, the global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were projected to decline by 14.7% and 24.7%, respectively. Conversely, the health burden on individuals aged 20 to 54 years was anticipated to rise through 2040. In our study, low bone mineral density was found to be linked with elevated risk for males aged over 54 years, while childhood sexual abuse exhibited a paramount positive association with BL risk for females, regardless of age. Notably, tobacco use, particularly secondhand smoking, were inversely associated with BL risk across all age groups and sexes.
Conclusion: Burkitt lymphoma demonstrated unique distribution patterns in terms of age, sex, and region. Further investigations into the heterogeneity of the risk factors for BL are essential for the development of more effective health policies and clinical practices.
Keywords: Burkitt lymphoma, global burden of disease, health burden, trend, risk factor