已发表论文

评估超声检测到的颈动脉斑块形态在预测绝经后女性缺血性卒中风险中的预后意义

 

Authors Liu J, Du Y, Liu Y

Received 1 September 2025

Accepted for publication 11 December 2025

Published 6 January 2026 Volume 2026:18 564475

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IJWH.S564475

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Matteo Frigerio


Jing Liu,1,* Yanmei Du,1,* Yihan Liu2 

1Physical Examination Center, Shijiazhuang Fourth Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050000, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Neurology, The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, 050000, People’s Republic of China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Yihan Liu, Email hl97ggf@163.com

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of carotid plaque characteristics for ischemic stroke risk in postmenopausal women, and to develop a predictive model based on these features.
Methods: A retrospective analysis of clinical and carotid ultrasound data was performed on 145 postmenopausal women admitted to our hospital between January and December 2023. Patients were divided into stroke (n = 23) and non-stroke (n = 122) groups based on ischemic stroke occurrence during follow-up. Carotid plaque characteristics (location, number, echogenicity, surface, internal structure, and calcification) were assessed using color Doppler ultrasound. Cox regression analysis was used to examine plaque morphology’s association with ischemic stroke risk. A prediction model incorporating plaque characteristics and traditional risk factors (age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, dyslipidemia) was developed and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.
Results: Cox regression analysis revealed several plaque characteristics as independent risk factors for ischemic stroke. These included hypoechoic plaques (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.16), irregular surfaces (HR = 1.84), ulcerated plaques (HR = 3.25), and heterogeneous internal structures (HR = 1.92). Additionally, plaques located in the internal carotid artery (HR = 2.31) and the presence of multiple plaques (≥ 3) (HR = 1.86) were significant stroke risk factors. The predictive model combining these plaque features with traditional risk factors demonstrated superior accuracy (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.87) compared to models based solely on traditional risk factors (AUC = 0.73, P = 0.008). Stratification using the prediction model identified low, moderate, and high-risk groups, with stroke incidence highest in the high-risk group (35.9%) compared to moderate (12.1%) and low-risk (4.2%) groups.
Conclusion: Carotid plaque morphology is a significant predictor of ischemic stroke in postmenopausal women. Including plaque characteristics in risk assessments improves predictive accuracy, aiding in early identification and personalized prevention strategies.

Keywords: carotid plaque, morphological characteristics, postmenopausal women, ischemic stroke