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Authors Liu G, Liu Q, Sun SR
Received 13 November 2018
Accepted for publication 19 February 2019
Published 24 April 2019 Volume 2019:11 Pages 3535—3544
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S194366
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single-blind
Peer reviewers approved by Dr Colin Mak
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Chien-Feng Li
Background: The aim
of this study was to develop and validate nomograms to predict the survival in
patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC).
Patients and methods: Adult
patients who were surgically treated for PTC were selected from the
Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program (2004–2013). A
multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards regression was
performed, and nomograms for predicting 10-year overall survival (OS) and
cancer-specific survival (CSS) were constructed. The discrimination and
calibration plots were used to measure the accuracy of the nomograms.
Results: The
records of 63,219 patients with PTC were retrospectively analyzed. Nine
independent factors including age, race, sex, marital status, tumor size,
extrathyroidal extension, radioactive iodine, T stage, and M stage were
assembled into the OS nomogram. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based
on eight factors (age, sex, marital status, tumor size, extrathyroidal
extension, T stage, N stage, and M stage). With respect to the training set,
the nomograms displayed improved discrimination power compared to the TNM
staging system (6th edition) in both sets. The calibration curve for the
probability of survival showed agreement between the predictive nomograms and
the actual observation.
Conclusion: We have
successfully developed prognostic nomograms to predict OS and CSS for PTC with
excellent discrimination and calibration.
Keywords: papillary
thyroid cancer, nomogram, SEER, prognosis