Objective: To develop and validate a new prediction model for the general population based on a large panel of both traditional and novel factors in cardiovascular disease (CVD).
Design and Setting: We used a prospective cohort in the Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study (NCRCHS).
Participants: A total of 11,956 participants aged ≥ 35 years were recruited between 2012 and 2013, using a multistage, randomly stratified, cluster-sampling scheme. In 2015 and 2017, the participants were invited to join the follow-up study for incident cardiovascular events. The loss to follow-up number was 351. At the study’s end, we obtained the CVD outcome events for 10,349 participants.
Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: The prediction model was developed using demographic factors, blood biochemical indicators, electrocardiographic (ECG) characteristics, and echocardiography indicators collected at baseline (Model 1). Framingham-related variables, namely age, sex, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and diabetes status were used to construct the traditional model (Model 2).
Results: For the observed population (n = 10,349), the median follow-up time was 4.66 years. The total incidence of CVD was 1.1%/year, including stroke (n = 342) and coronary heart disease (n = 175). The results of Model 1 indicated that in addition to the traditional risk factors, QT interval (p < 0.001), aortic root diameter (p < 0.001), and ventricular septal thickness (p < 0.001) were predictive factors for CVD. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the net benefit with Model 1 was higher than that of Model 2.
Conclusion: QT interval from electrocardiography and aortic root diameter and ventricular septal thickness from echocardiography should be included in the CVD risk prediction models.
Keywords: CVD, predictive model, general cohort, QT interval, aortic root diameter, ventricular septal thickness