Background: In recent years, the cure rate of acute pancreatitis (AP) has increased gradually, but the morbidity of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) has not decreased. Patients with RAP have a poor quality of life and are more likely to develop into chronic pancreatitis. To investigate the risk factors of RAP after first pancreatitis attack is very necessary.
Methods: Patients with first episode AP admitted to Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine from January 2018 to May 2021 were included in this retrospective study, and follow-up was 3– 45 months after discharge. The patients information were collected from medical records including laboratory tests and auxiliary inspection of their hospitalization. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to explore the risk factors of RAP. Cumulative risk of RAP was plotted using Kaplan–Meier curves.
Results: A total of 592 patients were enrolled in the study and 81 (13.7%) of the patients developed RAP. Among those RAP patients, the majority (67.9%) were men, with a median age of 43 years. The most common etiology of RAP was hypertriglyceridemia (38.3%). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that smoking history (p < 0.001), infected pancreatic necrosis occurred during first admission (p = 0.005), and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc) level (p < 0.001) were significant independent risk factors for RAP. Patients with the above independent risk factors had increased 3-year cumulative risk of recurrence (32.2%, 45.5%, 28.9%, respectively).
Conclusion: Smoking history, infected pancreatic necrosis, and high LDLc level were the most decisive risk factors for RAP. Attention should be paid to the patients with the above factors.
Keywords: first episode pancreatitis, recurrent acute pancreatitis, risk factors, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, infected pancreatic necrosis