Purpose: The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score has proven value in predicting short-term prognosis in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but it has only moderate discrimination for long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a multi-biomarker score for better risk stratification and indication of 2-year risk in patients with NSTEMI.
Patients and Methods: A total of 6076 consecutive patients with NSTEMI (66 [59– 73] years, 73.1% males) admitted at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were collected in this observational, prospective study between 2012 and 2018 with a 24-month follow-up. The primary endpoint was all-cause death and non-fatal major adverse cardiac events (MACE). A biomarker score ranged from 0 to 12 was constructed. The predictive power of the biomarker score was evaluated alone or combined with the GRACE score by C-statistic, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI).
Results: During a 2-year follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 159 patients (2.6%), and non-fatal MACEs were presented in 709 patients (11.7%). When added to the GRACE score, the biomarker score demonstrated better prognostic accuracy, patient reclassification and risk discrimination for both mortality and non-fatal MACEs at 2 years by improving the C-statistic from 0.714 (0.671– 0.756) and 0.623 (0.600– 0.646) to 0.851 (0.820– 0.882) and 0.721 (0.702– 0.741) with NRI > 25% (P < 0.001) and IDI > 0.30 (P < 0.001).
Conclusion: The single use of biomarker score could markedly enhance the prognostic value of concurrent risk stratification tools for 2-year mortality and non-fatal MACEs in NSTEMI. The GRACE score with incorporation of the biomarker score led to more accurate risk reclassification and warrants more consideration in further NSTEMI management.
Keywords: risk stratification, prognosis, net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement