Purpose: This study aimed to assess the prognostic and predictive value of a circulating hematological signature (CHS) and to develop a CHS-based nomogram for predicting prognosis and guiding individualized chemotherapy in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients.
Patients and Methods: NPC patients were recruited between January 2014 and December 2017 at the Jiangxi Cancer Hospital. The CHS was constructed based on a series of hematological indicators. The nomogram was developed by CHS and clinical factors.
Results: A total of 779 patients were included. Three biomarkers were selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, including prognostic nutritional index, albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio, and prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio, were used to construct the CHS. The patients in the low-CHS group had better 5-year DMFS and OS than those in the high-CHS group in the training (DMFS: 85.0% vs 56.6%, p< 0.001; OS: 90.3% vs 65.4%, p< 0.001) and validation cohorts (DMFS: 92.3% vs 43.6%, p< 0.001; OS: 92.1% vs 65.5%, p< 0.001). The nomogram_CHS showed better performance than clinical stage in predicting distant metastasis (concordance index: 0.728 vs 0.646). In the low-TRS (total risk scores) group, the patients received RT alone, CCRT and IC plus CCRT had similar 5-year DMFS and OS (p> 0.05). In the middle-TRS group, the patients received RT alone had worse 5-year DMFS (58.7% vs 80.8% vs 90.8%, p=0.002) and OS (75.0% vs 94.1% vs 95.0%, p=0.001) than those received CCRT or IC plus CCRT. In the high-TRS group, the patients received RT alone and CCRT had worse 5-year DMFS (18.6% vs 31.3% vs 81.5%, p< 0.001) and OS (26.9% vs 53.2% vs 88.8%, p< 0.001) than those received IC plus CCRT.
Conclusion: The developed nomogram_CHS had satisfactory prognostic accuracy in NPC patients and may individualize risk estimation to facilitate the identification of suitable IC candidates.
Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma, circulating hematological signature, induction chemotherapy, distant metastasis-free survival, overall survival