Objective: To analyze the equity of human resources allocation of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) and to predict the development in the next five years in China, and to provide a scientific basis for promoting the development of human resources.
Methods: The data of the CDCs from 2017 to 2021 were obtained from the “China Health Statistical Yearbook”, and descriptive analysis, health resource density index (HRDI), Theil index, and health resource agglomeration degree (HRAD) were used to evaluate the equity, and the grey prediction model GM (1, 1) was used to predict the development from 2022 to 2026.
Results: Measured by the HRDI, the shortage of human resources in the western region was relatively obvious, with a shortage of more than 11,656 health technicians, more than 6418 licensed (assistant) physicians, and more than 693 registered nurses. The Theil index of human resources allocation by population was between 0.016 and 0.071, and the Theil index of human resources allocation by geography was between 0.312 and 0.359. The allocation of human resources by geography was more unequal than those allocated by population. In terms of HRAD, human resources are over-allocated equitably by geography in the eastern and central regions, while they are under-allocated equitably by geography in the western region. In terms of the difference between the HRAD and PAD, the eastern region has a shortage of human resources relative to the concentration population, and the western region has an excess of human resources relative to the concentration population.
Conclusion: The human resources allocation of the CDCs in China was uneven. The human resources of the CDCs were allocated more equitably by population than by geography. There was a situation where the equity of human resource allocation of the CDCs was contrary to the actual demand for medical care.

Keywords: human resources, equity, prediction, centers for disease control and prevention, China