Aim: A high percentage of the elderly suffer from knee osteoarthritis (KOA), which imposes a certain economic burden on them and on society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to examine the risk of KOA and to develop a KOA nomogram model that can timely intervene in this disease to decrease patient psychological burdens.
Methods: Data was collected from patients with KOA and without KOA at our hospital from February 2021 to February 2023. Initially, a comparison was conducted between the variables, identifying statistical differences between the two groups. Subsequently, the risk of KOA was evaluated using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator method and multivariate logistic regression to determine the most effective predictive index and develop a prediction model. The examination of the disease risk prediction model in KOA includes the corresponding nomogram, which encompasses various potential predictors. The assessment of disease risk entails the application of various metrics, including the consistency index (C index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, the calibration chart, the GiViTi calibration band, and the model for predicting KOA. Furthermore, the potential clinical significance of the model is explored through decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical influence curve analysis.
Results: The study included a total of 582 patients, consisting of 392 patients with KOA and 190 patients without KOA. The nomogram utilized age, haematocrit, platelet count, apolipoprotein a1, potassium, magnesium, hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase, creatine kinase, and estimated glomerular filtration rate as predictors. The C index, AUC, calibration plot, Giviti calibration band, DCA and clinical influence KOA indicated the ability of nomogram model to differentiate KOA.
Conclusion: Using nomogram based on disease risk, high-risk KOA can be identified directly without imaging.

Keywords: decision support, knee osteoarthritis, nomogram, predictors, risk factors