Wenhao Luo, Hao Chen, Taiping Zhang

Department of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, People’s Republic of China

Correspondence: Taiping Zhang, Department of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, People’s Republic of China, Email zhangtaiping@pumch.cn

Objective: To establish a modified nomogram model for pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma (pNEC) patients with liver metastasis via single-center clinical data, and to provide guidelines for improving the diagnosis and treatment of patients.
Methods: A retrospective analysis of clinical data from pNEC patients with liver metastasis at Peking Union Medical College Hospital (January 2000 to November 2023) was conducted. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier curves were generated, and a modified nomogram predictive model was developed to illustrate the prognosis of pNEC patients with liver metastasis. Calibration plots and C-index were used to validate the model’s feasibility, accuracy, and reliability.
Results: Forty-five participants with the rare cancer type pNEC and liver metastasis were included in the study. Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that primary tumor resection (PTR), chemotherapy or targeted therapy, and tumor size equal to or less than 5cm significantly improved OS compared to those without PTR, chemotherapy or targeted therapy, and tumor size larger than 5cm. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified PTR, a combination of chemotherapy and targeted therapy, and tumor size as independent prognostic factors for OS. The predictive nomogram model exhibited acceptable performance with a C-index of 0.744 (0.639– 0.805) through bootstrapping.
Conclusion: Combining chemotherapy with targeted therapy enhances the survival of pNEC patients with liver metastasis. The modified nomogram model and predictive score table offer valuable references and insights for both clinicians and patients.

Keywords: pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma, liver metastasis, nomogram model, targeted therapy, chemotherapy, overall survival