Jiangzhong Zeng, Leiei Mao, KaKa Xie

Department of Gynaecology and Obstetrics, Wenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, 325000, People’s Republic of China

Correspondence: KaKa Xie, Department of gynaecology and obstetrics, Wenzhou Central Hospital, No. 252, Baili East Road, Lucheng District, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, 325000, People’s Republic of China, Email wzhongs34@sina.com

Objective: To establish and evaluate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of postpartum hemorrhage in second cesarean section.
Methods: A total of 440 parturients who underwent the second cesarean section surgery and were registered in our hospital from August 2019 to July 2021 were selected as the study subjects. They were randomly divided into 220 modeling group and 220 validation group based on simple randomization. The two groups were divided into postpartum hemorrhage group and postpartum non bleeding group according to whether postpartum hemorrhage occurred.
Results: In the modeling group, the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in the second cesarean section was 15.00%; the Logistic regression model showed that placenta previa, operation time, prenatal anemia, placenta accreta, uterine inertia were the independent risk factors of postpartum hemorrhage in the second cesarean section (P < 0.05). ROC results showed that AUC of predicting the risk of postpartum hemorrhage in the second cesarean section was 0.824. The slope of calibration curve is close to 1, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed x2= 7.585, P = 0.250. The external verification results show that the AUC is 0.840, and the predicted probability of the calibration curve is close to the actual probability.
Conclusion: Based on the five risk factors of postpartum hemorrhage in the second cesarean section, including placenta previa, operation time, prenatal anemia, placenta accreta and uterine inertia, the nomogram model for predicting the risk of postpartum hemorrhage in the second cesarean section has good accuracy and differentiation.

Keywords: the second cesarean section, postpartum hemorrhage, nomogram model