Longyin Zhu,* Juan Cai,* Jia Fang, Lingyu Ran, Huan Chang, Huhai Zhang, Jiamin Zeng, Qin Yang, Chunxiao Fu, Qingping Li, Qianguang Pan, Hongwen Zhao

Department of Nephrology, the First Hospital Affiliated to Army Military Medical University (Southwest Hospital), Chongqing, People’s Republic of China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Hongwen Zhao; Qianguang Pan, Email zhaohw212@126.com; panqianguang@163.com

Objective: Analyze risk factors for cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) in adults and establish a nomogram model for CSA-AKI based on plasma soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and clinical characteristics.
Methods: In a study of 170 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) measured plasma suPAR levels. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified risk factors associated with CSA-AKI. Subsequently, the CSA-AKI nomogram model was developed using R software. Predictive performance was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC). Internal validation was performed through the Bootstrap method with 1000 repeated samples. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed the clinical applicability of the model.
Results: Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that being male, age ≥ 50 years, operation time ≥ 290 minutes, postoperative plasma suPAR at 2 hours, and preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were independent risk factors for CSA-AKI. Employing these variables as predictive factors, a nomogram model was constructed, an ROC curve was generated, and the AUC was computed as 0.817 (95% CI 0.726– 0.907). The calibration curve indicated the accuracy of the model, and the results of DCA demonstrated that the model could benefit the majority of patients.
Conclusion: Being male, age ≥ 50 years, operation time ≥ 290 minutes, low preoperative LVEF, and elevated plasma suPAR at 2 hours are independent risk factors for CSA-AKI. The nomogram model established based on these risk factors has high accuracy and clinical value, serving as a predictive tool for assessing the risk of CSA-AKI.

Keywords: nomogram, acute kidney injury, prediction model, risk factors, cardiac surgery