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已发表论文
1990 年至 2021 年中国烟草暴露对低背痛相关伤残调整生命年的趋势影响及未来 15 年的预测：基于 ARIMA 模型
Authors Song S, Feng S, Lu H, Li B
Received 5 June 2025
Accepted for publication 29 September 2025
Published 8 October 2025 Volume 2025:18 Pages 5303—5320
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/JPR.S544871
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 4
Editor who approved publication: Dr Alaa Abd-Elsayed
Shilei Song,* Shengyi Feng,* Haiming Lu, Bo Li
Joint Surgery Department, Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Bo Li, Email libo@shutcm.edu.cn
Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a leading cause of disability - adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. Tobacco exposure has been linked to LBP, but critical research gaps remain in quantifying its impact on LBP-related DALYs in China.
Objective: This study aims to analyze the disease burden of tobacco - related LBP among the Chinese population across all age groups from 1990 to 2021 using the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data and project trends for the next 15 years.
Methods: We utilized data from the GBD 2021 study, applying joinpoint regression and age - period - cohort analysis to assess the disease burden of tobacco - related LBP among the Chinese population across all age groups. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast future trends.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the total DALYs attributed to tobacco - related LBP in China showed an increasing trend, while the age - standardized rate (ASR) significantly declined. Specifically, the ASR for females decreased more sharply than that for males. The joinpoint regression analysis revealed a significant overall downward trend in the disease burden. The age - period - cohort analysis indicated that age significantly impacts the ASR, which is high in middle - to - old age groups. The ARIMA model forecast predicts a continued decline in the ASR of DALYs over the next 15 years.
Conclusion: The findings highlight the positive impact of tobacco - control measures in reducing the disease burden of tobacco - related LBP in China. However, the persistent high burden among males and older age groups remains a challenge. Continued and targeted tobacco - control efforts are essential to further reduce the disease burden. The findings of this study provide critical evidence for formulating targeted tobacco control policies, supporting the enhancement of tobacco intervention measures for high-risk populations (eg, males and older adults) and the implementation of tobacco control strategies to reduce the LBP-related disease burden and improve population health outcomes.
Keywords: ARIMA models, China, disability-adjusted life years, global burden of disease, low back pain, prediction, tobacco exposure
Joint Surgery Department, Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Bo Li, Email libo@shutcm.edu.cn
Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a leading cause of disability - adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. Tobacco exposure has been linked to LBP, but critical research gaps remain in quantifying its impact on LBP-related DALYs in China.
Objective: This study aims to analyze the disease burden of tobacco - related LBP among the Chinese population across all age groups from 1990 to 2021 using the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data and project trends for the next 15 years.
Methods: We utilized data from the GBD 2021 study, applying joinpoint regression and age - period - cohort analysis to assess the disease burden of tobacco - related LBP among the Chinese population across all age groups. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast future trends.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the total DALYs attributed to tobacco - related LBP in China showed an increasing trend, while the age - standardized rate (ASR) significantly declined. Specifically, the ASR for females decreased more sharply than that for males. The joinpoint regression analysis revealed a significant overall downward trend in the disease burden. The age - period - cohort analysis indicated that age significantly impacts the ASR, which is high in middle - to - old age groups. The ARIMA model forecast predicts a continued decline in the ASR of DALYs over the next 15 years.
Conclusion: The findings highlight the positive impact of tobacco - control measures in reducing the disease burden of tobacco - related LBP in China. However, the persistent high burden among males and older age groups remains a challenge. Continued and targeted tobacco - control efforts are essential to further reduce the disease burden. The findings of this study provide critical evidence for formulating targeted tobacco control policies, supporting the enhancement of tobacco intervention measures for high-risk populations (eg, males and older adults) and the implementation of tobacco control strategies to reduce the LBP-related disease burden and improve population health outcomes.
Keywords: ARIMA models, China, disability-adjusted life years, global burden of disease, low back pain, prediction, tobacco exposure