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已发表论文
1990 年至 2021 年全球育龄女性炎症性肠病负担及至 2050 年的未来预测：基于八种机器学习算法的综合分析
Authors Zhao J, Liu H, Tong L, Pu L, Yin X, Hu Y, Yang J, Zhu Y
Received 2 July 2025
Accepted for publication 20 October 2025
Published 14 November 2025 Volume 2025:17 Pages 4471—4496
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IJWH.S551115
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Matteo Frigerio
Jin Zhao,1,* Hua Liu,2– 4,* Le Tong,5,* Lingling Pu,2– 4 Xiaofei Yin,2– 4 Yuting Hu,6 Jing Yang,2– 4 Yong Zhu1
1Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Nanbu People’s Hospital, Nanchong, People’s Republic of China; 2Demonstration Center for Experimental Teaching in Biomedicine, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 3Key Laboratory of Target Discovery and Protein Drug Development in Major Diseases of Sichuan Higher Education Institutes, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 4Disease Biomarker Research Center of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Emergency Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University / West China School of Nursing, Sichuan University, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 6Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Jing Yang, Email jingyang@cmc.edu.cn Yong Zhu, Email 13980316434@163.com
Background: To comprehensively analyze the global burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among women of reproductive age from 1990 to 2021 and make future projections to 2050.
Methods: We utilized GBD2021 data to conduct a comprehensive analysis of IBD burden across five social-demographic index (SDI) regions, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries. We assessed trends in IBD-related incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and performed decomposition analysis to identify contributing factors. Additionally, we predicted the future trends of IBD burden from 2022 to 2050 using eight machine learning models.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, global IBD burden among women of reproductive age showed a slight upward trend in incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality. Population growth was the primary contributor to these increases. Significant regional disparities were observed, with high SDI regions continuing to bear the heaviest burden. While mortality rates declined in high SDI regions due to improved healthcare, low- and lower-middle SDI regions experienced higher mortality due to limited resources and access to diagnostic and treatment options. Age-specific trends revealed a higher burden in older age groups (40– 49), while younger women (20– 24) in low SDI regions exhibited higher mortality and disability.
Conclusion: This study provides in-depth insights into the global burden of IBD among women of reproductive age, which can guide the formulation of targeted prevention and management strategies and rational resource allocation to address the challenges posed by IBD in the future.
Keywords: inflammatory bowel disease, women of reproductive age, global burden of disease, regional trend, machine learning
1Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Nanbu People’s Hospital, Nanchong, People’s Republic of China; 2Demonstration Center for Experimental Teaching in Biomedicine, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 3Key Laboratory of Target Discovery and Protein Drug Development in Major Diseases of Sichuan Higher Education Institutes, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 4Disease Biomarker Research Center of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Emergency Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University / West China School of Nursing, Sichuan University, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China; 6Clinical Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Jing Yang, Email jingyang@cmc.edu.cn Yong Zhu, Email 13980316434@163.com
Background: To comprehensively analyze the global burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among women of reproductive age from 1990 to 2021 and make future projections to 2050.
Methods: We utilized GBD2021 data to conduct a comprehensive analysis of IBD burden across five social-demographic index (SDI) regions, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries. We assessed trends in IBD-related incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and performed decomposition analysis to identify contributing factors. Additionally, we predicted the future trends of IBD burden from 2022 to 2050 using eight machine learning models.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, global IBD burden among women of reproductive age showed a slight upward trend in incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality. Population growth was the primary contributor to these increases. Significant regional disparities were observed, with high SDI regions continuing to bear the heaviest burden. While mortality rates declined in high SDI regions due to improved healthcare, low- and lower-middle SDI regions experienced higher mortality due to limited resources and access to diagnostic and treatment options. Age-specific trends revealed a higher burden in older age groups (40– 49), while younger women (20– 24) in low SDI regions exhibited higher mortality and disability.
Conclusion: This study provides in-depth insights into the global burden of IBD among women of reproductive age, which can guide the formulation of targeted prevention and management strategies and rational resource allocation to address the challenges posed by IBD in the future.
Keywords: inflammatory bowel disease, women of reproductive age, global burden of disease, regional trend, machine learning