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已发表论文
2071 年前全球老年非黑色素瘤皮肤癌负担及预测：基于 2021 年全球疾病负担研究的系统全面分析
Authors Wang C, Du Z , Tan Y, Yang Z, Hua J, Wang G, Li T
Received 23 September 2025
Accepted for publication 11 November 2025
Published 20 November 2025 Volume 2025:18 Pages 3103—3116
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CCID.S569517
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Monica K. Li
Chenxi Wang,1,* Zhong Du,2,* Yu Tan,3,* Zhengmao Yang,2 Jianqiang Hua,4 Guoxu Wang,1 Tingting Li2
1Department of Radiation Oncology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Peking University Cancer Hospital Yunnan, Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Medical and Radiation Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 3The People’s Hospital of Yichun City, Yichun, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 4Intensive Care Unit, Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Dongyang, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Tingting Li, Email lttwz2000@163.com
Background: Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) poses a significant health burden to the elderly globally. This study seeks to comprehensively assess the burden of NMSC among elderly adults in various regions and countries worldwide, covering the time frame from 1990 to 2021.
Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed global trends in NMSC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate temporal trends, and an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was applied to assess underlying influences. Future projections were made using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.
Results: Data indicates that among all assessment metrics, both the number of cases and age-standardized rates are higher in males than in females, suggesting a more pronounced increase in the disease burden of NMSC among men. Concurrently, the disease burden is significantly higher in the elderly population compared to younger age groups. Across the 21 GBD regions worldwide, the disease burden is heaviest in high-income North America, particularly evident in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR): from 395.30 (336.70– 456.10)/100,000 (95% UI) in 1990, it rose to 1251.80 (1158.40– 1341.20)/100,000 (95% UI) in 2015. Additionally, the disease burden and mortality rates in Australasia and Western Europe were generally higher than in other regions. East Asia exhibited a high annual estimated percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence of 7.1 (6.2– 7.9) (95% CI), indicating that NMSC in this region is undergoing a rapid rise, thereby increasing the urgency for prevention and control.
Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of NMSC has increased significantly. Elderly populations in various countries with high Standardized Disease Index values are facing a substantial disease burden.
Keywords: NMSC, elderly population, Global Burden of Disease, Sociodemographic index, average annual percent change
1Department of Radiation Oncology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Peking University Cancer Hospital Yunnan, Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Medical and Radiation Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 3The People’s Hospital of Yichun City, Yichun, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 4Intensive Care Unit, Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Dongyang, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Tingting Li, Email lttwz2000@163.com
Background: Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) poses a significant health burden to the elderly globally. This study seeks to comprehensively assess the burden of NMSC among elderly adults in various regions and countries worldwide, covering the time frame from 1990 to 2021.
Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed global trends in NMSC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate temporal trends, and an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was applied to assess underlying influences. Future projections were made using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.
Results: Data indicates that among all assessment metrics, both the number of cases and age-standardized rates are higher in males than in females, suggesting a more pronounced increase in the disease burden of NMSC among men. Concurrently, the disease burden is significantly higher in the elderly population compared to younger age groups. Across the 21 GBD regions worldwide, the disease burden is heaviest in high-income North America, particularly evident in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR): from 395.30 (336.70– 456.10)/100,000 (95% UI) in 1990, it rose to 1251.80 (1158.40– 1341.20)/100,000 (95% UI) in 2015. Additionally, the disease burden and mortality rates in Australasia and Western Europe were generally higher than in other regions. East Asia exhibited a high annual estimated percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence of 7.1 (6.2– 7.9) (95% CI), indicating that NMSC in this region is undergoing a rapid rise, thereby increasing the urgency for prevention and control.
Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of NMSC has increased significantly. Elderly populations in various countries with high Standardized Disease Index values are facing a substantial disease burden.
Keywords: NMSC, elderly population, Global Burden of Disease, Sociodemographic index, average annual percent change