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已发表论文
全球老年人群皮肤恶性黑色素瘤的疾病负担及趋势：基于 2021 年全球疾病负担研究的分析
Authors Du Z , Li X, Tan W, Wang C, Wang G, Wei H, Pan Y, Wu S, Zhou Q, Lin H
Received 20 July 2025
Accepted for publication 28 November 2025
Published 15 December 2025 Volume 2025:18 Pages 3429—3442
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CCID.S555090
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Jeffrey Weinberg
Zhong Du,1,* Xianglong Li,1,* Wen Tan,2,* Chenxi Wang,3 Guoxu Wang,3 Haokai Wei,4 Yujue Pan,2 Shuang Wu,5 Qingyu Zhou,1 Haiyu Lin1
1Department of Medical and Radiation Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Medicine, Yichun University, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Radiation Oncology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University (Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Yunnan Cancer Center), Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Cardiology, The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Critical Care, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Qingyu Zhou, Email wzlinhaiyu2000@163.com Haiyu Lin, Email zqy17@foxmail.com
Background: Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) represents a substantial health burden for the elderly; however, data regarding its impact and epidemiology within this demographic remain scarce. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends of CMM among individuals aged 60 and elderly from 1990 to 2021.
Methods: We retrieved data on the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CMM among individuals aged 60 and above across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardized incidence and DALY rates of CMM, categorized by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI), to quantify temporal trends. Additionally, we employed Spearman correlation analysis to examine the relationship between age-standardized rates and SDI.
Results: This study analyzed global trends in CMM from 1990 to 2021 using the GBD database. The findings indicate a significant increase in the incidence (EAPC=0.65, 95% CI: 0.33– 0.96) and prevalence (EAPC=1.02, 95% CI: 0.64– 1.41) of CMM, while a significant decreasing trend was observed for mortality (EAPC=− 0.43, 95% CI: − 0.57- − 0.30) and DALYs (EAPC=− 0.67, 95% CI: − 0.82- − 0.53). In 2021, high-income North America exhibited the highest prevalence of CMM but the lowest growth rate. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa experienced the fastest growth rate, while Latin America also demonstrated a significant increase in prevalence. The growth rates of incidence and prevalence were notably higher among male patients compared to females, reflecting gender-specific behavioral differences. Furthermore, an analysis of the relationship between the burden of disease and the SDI for CMM across various regions from 1990 to 2021 revealed that the burden of disease in Australia significantly exceeded model predictions. The APC analysis indicated that the prevalence of CMM among elder population (≥ 60 years old) declined with age, but the overall disease burden continues to rise annually, demonstrating higher prevalence rates in later birth cohorts. Similar trends were observed for incidence, DALYs, and mortality.
Conclusion: This study reveals that the burden of CMM disease is rapidly increasing among populations residing at lower latitudes. The findings underscore the necessity for dynamic optimization of global prevention and control strategies, considering regional disparities.
Keywords: cutaneous malignant melanoma, elderly population, global burden of disease, sociodemographic index, average annual percent change
1Department of Medical and Radiation Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Medicine, Yichun University, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Radiation Oncology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University (Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Yunnan Cancer Center), Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Cardiology, The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Critical Care, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Qingyu Zhou, Email wzlinhaiyu2000@163.com Haiyu Lin, Email zqy17@foxmail.com
Background: Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) represents a substantial health burden for the elderly; however, data regarding its impact and epidemiology within this demographic remain scarce. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends of CMM among individuals aged 60 and elderly from 1990 to 2021.
Methods: We retrieved data on the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CMM among individuals aged 60 and above across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardized incidence and DALY rates of CMM, categorized by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI), to quantify temporal trends. Additionally, we employed Spearman correlation analysis to examine the relationship between age-standardized rates and SDI.
Results: This study analyzed global trends in CMM from 1990 to 2021 using the GBD database. The findings indicate a significant increase in the incidence (EAPC=0.65, 95% CI: 0.33– 0.96) and prevalence (EAPC=1.02, 95% CI: 0.64– 1.41) of CMM, while a significant decreasing trend was observed for mortality (EAPC=− 0.43, 95% CI: − 0.57- − 0.30) and DALYs (EAPC=− 0.67, 95% CI: − 0.82- − 0.53). In 2021, high-income North America exhibited the highest prevalence of CMM but the lowest growth rate. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa experienced the fastest growth rate, while Latin America also demonstrated a significant increase in prevalence. The growth rates of incidence and prevalence were notably higher among male patients compared to females, reflecting gender-specific behavioral differences. Furthermore, an analysis of the relationship between the burden of disease and the SDI for CMM across various regions from 1990 to 2021 revealed that the burden of disease in Australia significantly exceeded model predictions. The APC analysis indicated that the prevalence of CMM among elder population (≥ 60 years old) declined with age, but the overall disease burden continues to rise annually, demonstrating higher prevalence rates in later birth cohorts. Similar trends were observed for incidence, DALYs, and mortality.
Conclusion: This study reveals that the burden of CMM disease is rapidly increasing among populations residing at lower latitudes. The findings underscore the necessity for dynamic optimization of global prevention and control strategies, considering regional disparities.
Keywords: cutaneous malignant melanoma, elderly population, global burden of disease, sociodemographic index, average annual percent change