已发表论文

食管鳞状细胞癌风险较高地区内镜筛查的诺模图:基于人口的研究结果

 

Authors Xing J, Min L, Zhang H, Li P, Li W, Lv F, Wang Y, Zhang Z, Li H, Guo Q, Wang S, Zhao Y, Wang J, Shi X, Wang A, Zhu S, Ji M, Wu Y, Zhang S

Received 5 March 2018

Accepted for publication 9 July 2018

Published 3 January 2019 Volume 2019:11 Pages 431—442

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S167311

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewers approved by Dr Andrew Yee

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Professor Nakshatri

Background: Endoscopy is the main approach used for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening, especially in high-risk areas. However, little consensus has been achieved in recent ESCC screening programs, and endoscopists have selected patients only by age and family history. 
Patients and methods: To generate a proper strategy for selecting an eligible population for endoscopic screening based on demographic factors, lifestyle, and eating habits, a total of 7,830 residents in an area with a high risk of ESCC were recruited for this study. All participants underwent endoscopic examinations that were conducted by experienced endoscopists. Risk factors for ESCC and other lesions were selected by univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. A nomogram for the prediction of ESCC and premalignant lesions was constructed, which included information on age, sex, occupation, labor intensity, income, and mining exposure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to present the predictive accuracy of the nomograms. 
Results: The area under the curve (95% CI) was 0.749 (0.711–0.788) for this nomogram. By applying this nomogram, we could exclude 60% (4704/7830) of patients before endoscopy screening and detect all ESCC cases as well as most esophageal lesions in the remaining population. 
Conclusion: In conclusion, we provided a ready-to-use preclinical tool with the potential to select eligible people with high risk of ESCC for endoscopy screening.
Keywords: nomogram, endoscopy screening, ESCC, population-based study




Figure 1 Flowchart of participant inclusion and exclusion.